Lipoti laposachedwa la Wood Mackenzie limayang'ana zomwe zikuchitika komanso zovuta zomwe zikuchitika pamsika woyendera dzuwa ku US, kuphatikiza kupanga komwe kumalimbikitsidwa ndi US Inflation Reduction Act.
Kuchokera ku pv magazine USA
The US Inflation Reduction Act ya 2022 ili ndi $ 370 biliyoni yogwiritsa ntchito mphamvu zongowonjezwdwanso komanso njira zanyengo.Ndalamayi ikuphatikiza ndalama zoposa $60 biliyoni zakupanga m'nyumbakudutsa njira yabwino yoperekera mphamvu.Mlingo wambiri wandalama uwu ndiwofunikira pakukwaniritsa kudziyimira pawokha kwa America komanso chitetezo champhamvu champhamvu.
Lipoti laposachedwa lochokera kwa Wood Mackenzie likuwonetsa kuti opanga, makampani opanga zogulira zinthu za engineering (EPCs), ndi opanga aziyang'ana chitsogozo kuchokera ku US Treasury Department ndi IRS kuti amveke bwino kuti athe kukonza njira zatsopano zopangira ma solar ndi ndalama m'malo opangira zatsopano. mkati mwa United States.
Lipotili likuyang'ana zomwe zikuchitika m'makampani omwe akukulirakulira, kuphatikiza kuyang'ana kwambiri kwa TOPCon modules over heterojunction (HJT), kukula kwa msika wapadziko lonse lapansi wa inverter, kukula kwa tracker kupanga, kutsika komwe kukuyembekezeredwa kwamitengo ya projekiti ya dzuwa ndikuyang'ana zovuta zomwe zikupita patsogolo. .
TOPcon motsutsana ndi PERC
TOPCon, yomwe imayimira ma tunnel oxide passivated contacts, ikuyembekezeka kupitilira heterojunction (HJT), ndipo lipoti la Wood Mackenzie likuti mono PERC "ndi ukadaulo womwe umalinganiza kukhwima ndi kuchita bwino", zomwe zikuwonetsa kuti TOPCon ili ndi kuthekera kokulirapo kwambiri chifukwa cha ndondomeko. kukhathamiritsa ndi kukhathamiritsa kwa mtengo.
"Ntchito ya PERCteknoloji yamapaneliilinso ndi njira yophunzirira yofulumira kwambiri ndipo kulinganiza pakati pawo kudzadalira kuti ndi ndani yemwe azitha kuwonjezera mphamvu zake kapena kuchepetsa mtengo wake mwachangu kuposa winayo," Stefan Gunz, wamkulu wa kafukufuku wa photovoltaics ku Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems ku Germany. (ISE), adanenapv magazinichaka chapitacho.
Ofufuza a Wood Mackenzie akuyerekeza kuti ma module a TOPCon afika pa 25% pakupanga zinthu zambiri ndipo akhoza kukwera mpaka 28.7%
Kupititsa patsogolo kupanga kuchokera ku mono PERC kupanga kupita ku TOPCon ndi ndalama zosavuta komanso zotsika mtengo, ndipo akatswiri amalingalira kuti labu logwira ntchito bwino la 27% likhoza kutheka chifukwa cha kusintha kwazitsulo ndi zowonda.Wood Mackenzie akuti opanga ena amayembekeza kuti makulidwe apakati pa ma module akulu a TOPCon atsika 20 μm chaka chino mpaka 120 μm, zomwe zipangitsa kuti mitengo ichepetse kwambiri mu 2023.
Lamulo la Kuchepetsa Kukwera kwa Ndalama ikulimbikitsa kupanga ma module aku US chifukwa cha ndalama zokwana madola 30 biliyoni zamisonkho yopangira zinthu komanso ngongole ya msonkho ya $ 10 biliyoni yomanga nyumba zopangira zida zamakono.Wood Mackenzie akuyembekezera USmphamvu yopanga ma modulekupitilira 15 GW pakutha kwa chaka chino.
Funso lalikulu, komabe, ndilo tanthauzo la "zida zopangidwa kunyumba", komanso ngati zikutanthauza kuti ma modules amasonkhanitsidwa ku United States, kapena ngati zigawo zonse zapangidwa ku US.Chovuta kwa opanga ma module ndikuti palibe chowotcha kapena kupanga ma cell ku US, ngakhale izi zikusintha ndi zolengeza zaposachedwa ndi makampani kuphatikiza Qcells ndi CubicPV.Kusiyana kwa kutanthauzira kwazinthu zapakhomo "kungakhudze kwambiri mphamvu yopanga ma module m'zaka zisanu zikubwerazi", lipotilo likutsutsa.Ofufuzawo akuyerekeza kuti pafupifupi 45 GWdc ya zolengeza zatsopano zidzabwera pa intaneti pofika 2026.
Kukula koyembekezeredwa kwa solar ku US kudzayenda kudzera muzogulitsa, kukulitsa kukula kwa ma inverters ndi ma tracker, pakati pazinthu zina zothandizira.Lipoti la Wood Mackenzie likuwonetsa kuti kusintha kwa mfundo zaposachedwa, kuphatikiza REPowerEU ya EU, kukhazikitsa ku India kwa Production Linked Incentives (PLI) ndi US IRA, kumathandizira kutengera kutengera kwa dzuwa m'maikowa, motero kuthandizira maikowo kukwaniritsa zolinga zawo zonse.
Malinga ndi lipotili, msika wa inverter wogona udzakula padziko lonse lapansi mu 2023. Ndi mphamvu ya dzuwa padenga, makamaka m'mayiko monga India ndi Germany, padzakhala kulimbikitsana kofananira pamsika wa microinverters, string inverters ndi DC optimizers. Zosankha zodziwika bwino za inverter pakuyika padenga.Makamaka, ma inverters a zingwe okhala ndi ma tracker angapo amphamvu kwambiri (MPPTs) awona kuchuluka kwa msika mu 2023.
Ma inverters okhalamo awona kugwiritsa ntchito luntha lochita kupanga mu ma algorithms ake.Module-level power electronics (MLPEs) ndi ma inverters a chingwe chimodzi, omwe amadziwika kwambiri pazitseko za dzuwa, adzawona gawo la 11% pamsika wapadziko lonse lapansi mu 2023. kujowina msika, ndipo mpikisano wotsatira uyambitsa kutsika kwamitengo kuchoka pa 2% mpaka 4% mu 2023.
Vuto lomwe likupitilizabe kwa opanga ma inverter ndi kuchepa kwa chip padziko lonse lapansi, komwe akatswiri a Wood Mackenzie akuyembekeza kupitilira mpaka 2023 ndikupitilira mpaka 2024. kuonetsetsa kuti ma inverters awo ali abwino, ogwira ntchito komanso moyo wawo wonse.Wood Mac alosera kuti mtengo wa inverter sudzatsika mpaka kumapeto kwa chaka chino.
Kupanga ma tracker apakhomo akuchulukirachulukira m'maiko angapo padziko lapansi chifukwa cha zolimbikitsira boma komanso zovuta zomwe zidachitika pa mliri wa COVID-19.Malinga ndi ofufuza a Wood Mackenzie, mitengo ya tracker idzatsika ku India ndi ku United States.Akuyembekeza kukhazikika kwazinthu zazitsulo ku US ndi India, makamaka ndikukula kwa kupanga zitsulo zomwe zilipo.Europe, komabe, idzakumanabe ndi kusalinganika pamsika wazitsulo.Chifukwa chopitilira 60% ya ma tracker ndi chitsulo, kufunikira kwa chitsulo kumeneku kudzachititsa kuti pakhale mpikisano wochulukira pamsika wamalonda kwa ogulitsa, atero ofufuza a Wood Mackenzie, akuwonetsa kuti mitengo ya 2023 yama tracker idzatsika ndi 5% ku United States, Brazil ndi China.
Mtengo wa dzuwa
Ndalama zogwiritsira ntchito ndalama zazikulu zidzapitirirabe kutsika, zoyendetsedwa ndi gawo limodzi ndi kuwonjezeka kwa ma modules a TOPcon.Ofufuza a Wood Mackenzie amayembekezanso kuti mitengo ya polysilicon idzatsika chaka chino ndipo amayerekezera zomwe zilipo300 GWMphamvu zapadziko lonse lapansi zidzafika pa 900 GW kumapeto kwa 2023.
"Timaneneratu kuti kuwonjezereka kwa 1 miliyoni Mt ya polysilicon kudzabwera pa intaneti pofika 2023. Zambiri zatsopano zidzakhala ku China.Komabe, tikukhulupirira kuti pafupifupi 10% yomwe ikuyenera kukhala kunja kwa China ikhoza kuyitanitsa mtengo chifukwa ungakhale wopanda msonkho komanso zoopsa zina. "
Vuto lomwe likupitilira ndi kusatsimikizika pamitengo ya antidumping/countervailing (AD/CVD).Pomwe dipatimenti ya Zamalonda ku US ikuyembekezeka kulengeza zomwe zatsimikiza mu Meyi 2023, Wood Mackenzie akuti ntchito zitha kukhala kuyambira 16% mpaka 254% kutengera dziko lomwe adachokera.Kutsimikiza koyambirira, komwe kudatulutsidwa mu Disembala 2022, kudapeza makampani oyambira 1, monga Trina, BYD, Vina (gawo la Longi) ndi Canadian Solar, akuthamangitsa mitengo yaku China.Kutsimikiza koyambirirako kudathetsa Hanwha ndi Jinko zomwe zipangitsa kuti pakhale mpumulo pakupezeka kwa module mu 2023.
Ku United States, Madivelopa apitiliza kuyang'ana zofunikira za IRA, kuphatikiza malipiro omwe alipo komanso mabonasi apanyumba pama projekiti akuluakulu omwe ayamba kumangidwa mu 2023. Ngongole, ma projekiti onse akulu kuposa 1 MWac ayenera kulipira antchito ake malipiro omwe alipo ndikuyambitsa pulogalamu yophunzirira.
Ku Europe, mfundo ya REPowerEU ikufuna kukhazikitsa 320 GW ya solar PV pofika 2025 ndi 600 GW pansi pa njira yake ya EU solar energy.Kuti akwaniritse zolinga zazikuluzikuluzi, pakufunika kumanga malo opangira zinthu m'derali.European Solar Photovoltaic Industry Alliance yatsopano, ipanga dongosolo lothandizira kupeza ndalama zopangira ndikulimbikitsa kafukufuku ndi luso laukadaulo wa module, pakati paukadaulo wina wa zero-carbon.
Chotsutsa chomaliza kuKupanga PVmu Europe, malinga Wood Mackenzie akatswiri, ndi mtengo mpikisano ku dera APAC chifukwa cha mtengo wake wapamwamba wa mphamvu, ntchito ndi zinthu, koma angapindule makasitomala wokonzeka kulipira umafunika luso bwino ndi kuwonekera mu unyolo kotunga.
Nthawi yotumiza: Jan-29-2023