PV Industry Production Yagunda 310GW Ya Ma module Mu 2022, Nanga Bwanji 2023?

Wolemba Finlay Colville

Novembala 17, 2022

Padzakhala polysilicon yokwanira yopangidwa mu 2022 kuthandizira kupanga pafupifupi 320GW ya ma module a c-Si.Chithunzi: JA Solar.

Makampani opanga ma solar PV akuyembekezeka kutulutsa ma module 310GW mu 2022, zomwe zikuyimira chiwonjezeko chodabwitsa cha 45% pachaka poyerekeza ndi 2021, malinga ndi kafukufuku waposachedwa wopangidwa ndi gulu lofufuza zamsika la PV Tech ndikufotokozedwa mu PV Manufacturing & Lipoti la Technology Quarterly.

Msika mu 2022 udatsogozedwa ndi kupanga ndipo pamapeto pake ukukulitsidwa ndi kuchuluka kwa polysilicon yomwe idapangidwa chaka chonse.Kufuna nthawi zina kunkakwera 50-100% kuposa zomwe zingapangidwe.

Padzakhala polysilicon yokwanira yopangidwa mu 2022 kuti ithandizire kupanga pafupifupi 320GW ya ma module a c-Si.Magulu opangira ma cell a Wafer ndi c-Si amatha kukhala pafupifupi 315GW.Kupanga ma module (c-Si ndi filimu yopyapyala) kuyenera kukhala pafupi ndi 310GW, ndikutumiza komaliza pamsika ku 297GW.Ndikuyika zolakwika za ± 2% pazotsatira izi pompano, kutsala milungu isanu ndi umodzi yopanga chaka.

Mwa ma module a 297GW omwe adatumizidwa mu 2022, kuchuluka kwakukulu kwa izi sikungabweretse mphamvu yatsopano yoyika PV.Izi ndichifukwa cha zinthu zingapo;zina zokhazikika, zina zatsopano.Zodziwika bwino zakhala 'kusungidwa' kwa ma module pazachikhalidwe zaku US komanso kuchedwa kwa kulumikizana.Koma tsopano pali voliyumu yovomerezeka yomwe ikupita m'malo mwa ma module kapenanso kukonzanso mbewu.Mphamvu yomaliza ya PV yomwe idawonjezeredwa mu 2022 ikhoza kuyandikira ku 260GW zonsezi zikadziwika bwino.

Kuchokera pakupanga, panalibe zodabwitsa zazikulu.China idapanga 90% ya polysilicon, 99% ya zowotcha, 91% ya ma cell a c-Si ndi 85% ya ma module a c-Si.Ndipo, ndithudi, aliyense amafuna zopanga zapakhomo, makamaka India, US ndi Europe.Kufuna ndi chinthu chimodzi;kukhala ndi china.

Pafupifupi theka la polysilicon yopangidwa ku China mchaka cha 2022 pamakampani a PV amapangidwa ku Xinjiang.Chiŵerengerochi chidzatsika chaka chilichonse mtsogolo muno, popanda mphamvu zatsopano zomwe zikuyembekezeka kubwera pa intaneti m'derali.

Pankhani yaukadaulo, mtundu wa n-mtundu udalowa kwambiri, pomwe TOPCon tsopano ndiyomwe imakonda kamangidwe ka atsogoleri amsika, ngakhale mayina ena odziwika bwino akuyembekeza kuyendetsa molumikizana ndi ma heterojunction komanso kulumikizana kumbuyo ku sikelo ya GW yambiri mu 2023. Pafupifupi 20GW Maselo amtundu wa n anenedweratu kuti adzapangidwa mu 2022, pomwe 83% idzakhala TOPCon.Opanga aku China akuyendetsa kusintha kwa TOPCon;pafupifupi 97% ya ma cell a TOPCon opangidwa mu 2022 ali ku China.Chaka chamawa chidzawona kusinthaku, pamene TOPCon iyamba kupeza njira yopita ku gawo la US, chinthu chomwe chidzafuna kuti maselo a TOPCon apangidwe kunja kwa China, mwina ku Southeast Asia, koma zimatengera zomwe zimachitika ndi kufufuza kosalekeza anti-circumvention ku US.

Pankhani ya kutumiza ma module mu 2022, Europe idapambana kwambiri, ngakhale ma module odabwitsa a 100GW-plus adapangidwa ku China ndikusungidwa ku China.Kupatulapo US, misika ina yonse yayikulu idawona kukula kolimba kwa manambala awiri, mogwirizana ndi kulakalaka kwa dzuwa komwe kwakhudza dziko lapansi posachedwa.

Europe idakumana ndi zovuta zingapo mu 2022 zomwe zidapangitsa kukula kwakukulu komwe kudawonekera.Derali lidakhala malo otumizira ma voliyumu omwe sanapezeke pamsika waku US ndipo adakhudzidwanso nthawi yomweyo ndi zotsatira za mkangano ku Ukraine.Pafupifupi 67GW ya ma module adatumizidwa kumsika waku Europe mu 2022 - mavoliyumu omwe palibe amene amayembekezera chaka chapitacho.

Kwa chaka chonse, makampani a PV adakhudzidwa kwambiri ndi mawu atsopano pamilomo ya aliyense: traceability.Kugula ma module a solar PV sikunakhaleko kovuta kwambiri.

Ikani pambali mfundo yoti mitengo ikadali yokwera 20-30% kuposa zaka zingapo zapitazo, kuti mapangano omwe adasainidwa miyezi isanu ndi umodzi yapitayo sangakhale oyenera pepala lomwe adalembedwapo, kapena mitu yaminga yodalirika komanso kulemekeza zonena za chitsimikizo.

Choposa zonsezi lero ndizovuta za traceability.Ndani amapanga chiyani komanso komwe lero, komanso zochulukirapo, adzapanga kuti m'zaka zikubwerazi.

Dziko lamakampani likulimbana ndi nkhaniyi tsopano komanso zomwe zikutanthauza pogula gawo la PV.Ndalemba zambiri pa PV Tech m'zaka khumi zapitazi chifukwa chake kuli kofunika kumvetsetsa kuti makampani ambiri ogulitsa ma modules samachita china chilichonse kupatulapo 'phukusi' zopangidwa ndi makampani ena.M'mbuyomu, ndimaganiza kuti ndizofunikira kwambiri pakukhala ndi chidaliro mumtundu;tsopano izi zikuchulukirachulukira chifukwa cha traceability komanso kufunikira kowunika unyolo wamagetsi.

Ogula ma module akuyenera kutenga njira yowonongeka pakupanga mphamvu zamagetsi tsopano, kuchotsa zigawo za module mpaka kuzinthu zopangira polysilicon padziko lonse lapansi.Zingamveke zowawa, zopindulitsa zomaliza zidzakhala zazikulu, pamapeto pake zidzaposa za kufufuza kwa traceability.

Pakalipano, ponena za kupanga zigawo (polysilicon, wafer, cell ndi module) ndizothandiza kugawa dziko lapansi m'magawo asanu ndi limodzi: Xinjiang, China, Southeast Asia, India, US, ndi dziko lonse lapansi.Mwina chaka chamawa, Europe ikubwera kuno, koma kwa 2022 ndi nthawi yoti itulutse Europe (kupatulapo kuti Wacker amapanga polysilicon ku Germany).

Zithunzi zomwe zili pansipa zatengedwa pa webinar yomwe ndidapereka sabata yatha.Ikuwonetsa kupanga kwa 2022 kumadera osiyanasiyana omwe awonetsedwa pamwambapa.

China idalamulira kupanga zida za PV mchaka cha 2022, ndikuganizira kwambiri kuchuluka kwa polysilicon yomwe idapangidwa ku Xinjiang.

Kupita mu 2023, pali zosatsimikizika zambiri pakadali pano, ndipo ndiyesera ndikuphimba izi miyezi ingapo ikubwerayi pazochitika zathu komanso mawonekedwe a PV Tech ndi ma webinars.

Ngakhale traceability ndi ESG adzakhalabe pamwamba pa ajenda kwa ambiri (onse kugula ndi kugulitsa ma modules), nkhani ya mtengo wa module (ASP) akhoza kukhala amene kutsatira kwambiri (kachiwiri!).

Module ASP idakhalabe yokwera kwazaka zingapo chifukwa cha kulakalaka kwamphamvu kwa solar komwe net zero syndrome yakhazikitsa maboma, zothandizira ndi mabungwe apadziko lonse lapansi (dzuwa likadali mphamvu yowoneka bwino yongowonjezedwanso chifukwa cha liwiro la kutumiza komanso patsamba/ umwini kusinthasintha).Ngakhale ngati wina anganene kuti kufunikira (kosadziwikiratu pomwe osunga ndalama ochepa okha ndi omwe amapeza malonda) pakuwonjezeka kwadzuwa pazaka zingapo zikubwerazi, nthawi ina China kuchuluka kwamphamvu kudzalowa m'bwaloli.

Mwachidule, ngati mukufuna kuwirikiza kawiri chaka chamawa ndipo ndalama zogulira ndalama zimapanga katatu kuchuluka kwa chaka chatha, izi zimakhala msika wa ogula ndipo mtengo wazinthuzo umatsika.Padziko lonse lapansi lero, botolo ndi polysilicon.Mu 2023, misika ina ikhoza kukhala ndi zopinga zina ngati pali zinthu zomwe zimaperekedwa kumadera ena amtengo wapatali (maselo kapena ma module, mwachitsanzo).Koma kuyang'ana kwambiri pa polysilicon ndi kuchuluka kwa mphamvu zatsopano zomwe zidzabwere pa intaneti ku China ndi zomwe izi zidzatulutsa;mphamvu ndi kupanga ndi zinthu ziwiri zosiyana kwambiri, makamaka pamene osewera atsopano alowa danga.

Kuneneratu za kupanga polysilicon mu 2023 ndizovuta kwambiri masiku ano.Osati mochuluka pofufuza kuti ndi mulingo wanji wa mphamvu zatsopano zomwe 'zidzamangidwa';makamaka ponena za zomwe izi zidzatulutsa komanso ngati Chinese polysilicon 'cartel' idzachitapo kanthu kuti iwonetsetse kuti ikhale yolimba.Ndizomveka kuti opanga ma polysilicon aku China azichita ngati kalabu, kapena cartel, ndikuchepetsa kukulitsa ngati kuli kofunikira, kapena kukonza nthawi yayitali pakati pa chaka kuti athe kuwerengera.

Mbiri imatiuza zosiyana.Makampani aku China amakonda kuchulukirachulukira pakafunika msika, ndipo ngakhale dzikolo lidayikidwa bwino kuti lipereke udindo pamagulu amagulu, limakhala laulere kwa onse ndi ndalama zopanda malire patebulo kwa aliyense watsopano. chikhumbo chamakampani.

Ndikofunika kuzindikira kuti mitengo ya polysilicon imatha kutsika, koma mitengo yamtengo wapatali imakwera.Izi zitha kukhala zovuta kuzitengera chifukwa zimasemphana ndi malingaliro abwino mumakampani a PV.Koma ndichinthu chomwe chitha kuchitika mu 2023. Ndiyesera ndikufotokozera izi tsopano.

Pamsika wokhala ndi gawo lochulukirachulukira (monga momwe makampani a PV amagwirira ntchito kwambiri mpaka 2020), nthawi zambiri pamakhala kutsika kwa gawo la ASP komanso kutsika mtengo.Mwachikhazikitso, mitengo ya polysilicon (pongoganiza zochulukirapo aponso) ndiyotsika.Ganizirani za US $ 10/kg kumbuyo masana.

M'zaka zingapo zapitazi, mitengo ya ma module sinakwere chifukwa chakuti kupezeka kwa polysilicon kunali kolimba komanso mitengo idakwera (kupitilira US $ 30/kg makamaka), koma chifukwa udali msika wa ogulitsa ma module.Ngati mitengo ya polysilicon mu 2022 idatsikira ku US $ 10/kg, ogulitsa ma module akanatha kugulitsabe zinthu zapakati pa 30-40c/W.Pakadakhala malire ochulukirapo kwa opanga mawafa, ma cell ndi ma module.Simukutsitsa mtengo ngati simukufuna kutero.

Kwa miyezi 18 yapitayi, zakhala zodabwitsa kwa ine kuti Beijing sanachite (kuseri kwazithunzi) 'kulamula' gulu la polysilicon ku China kuti lichepetse mitengo.Osati kuthandiza dziko lonse lapansi pogula ma module, koma kulola kugawana bwino kwa phindu pazambiri zonse zopanga ku China.Ndikungoganiza kuti sizinachitike chifukwa aliyense ku China adatha kuchita bwino ndikusunga malire a 10-15% - ngakhale ndi polysilicon yogulitsa pa US $ 40 / kg.Chifukwa chokhacho cha lamulo la Beijing chikanakhala kusonyeza dziko lakunja kuti othandizira ake a polysilicon (kumbukirani theka la polysilicon ya ku China mu 2022 inapangidwa ku Xinjiang) sanali kunena za 70-80% m'mphepete mwa nyanja pamene akuyang'aniridwa ndi funso lonse la Xinjiang. .

Chifukwa chake, sizopenga kuti mu 2023, padzakhala nthawi zomwe mitengo ya polysilicon imatsika koma mitengo ya module siyimakhudzidwa ndipo mwina imakweranso.

Si nkhani zonse zoipa kwa ogula gawo mu 2023. Pali zizindikiro kuti cyclical oversupply zidzachitika, makamaka mu theka loyamba la 2023 ndipo mwina kuonekera poyamba European ogula gawo.Zambiri mwa izi zikubwera chifukwa chakuti gawo la China likuyang'ana kutumiza mabuku ambiri ku Ulaya ndipo pafupifupi pamwamba pa zomwe opanga ku Ulaya / EPCs angapange kuti zichitike posachedwa.

Mitu yambiriyi idzakhala pakati pa msonkhano womwe ukubwera wa PV ModuleTech ku Malaga, Spain pa 29-30 November 2022. Pali malo omwe alipo kuti mupite nawo ku mwambowu;zambiri za hyperlink pano ndi momwe mungalembetsere kuti mukakhale nawo.Sipanakhalepo nthawi yabwinoko yoti tichite msonkhano wathu woyamba wa European PV ModuleTech!